Dong Zhao

Job Market Paper

Crisis and Elite Composition in Late Qing China: The Loyalty-Competence Trade-off, 1825-1911

This paper examines how autocratic regimes manage the trade-off between political loyalty and administrative competence during crises. Using comprehensive personnel records from Late Qing China and difference-in-differences methodology, I show that crisis type systematically determines elite composition: internal rebellions favor politically loyal Manchu bannermen (decreasing elite emphasis by 0.47-0.56 standard deviations), while external invasions favor competent Han Chinese examination graduates (increasing elite emphasis by 0.39-0.47 standard deviations), with effects persisting over a decade.

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Working Papers

Hereditary Succession and State Capacity in Imperial China, 207 BCE–1912 CE

This paper examines how hereditary power succession shaped state capacity across 2,000 years of Chinese imperial history. Using comprehensive data on 2,895 prime ministers across 55 dynasties, I show that hereditary succession rates varied dramatically (from 23% in the Yuan Dynasty to 91% in the Eastern Han), with profound implications for bureaucratic quality and long-run economic development.

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Chinese Historical GDP Reconstruction, 2-1328 CE: The Great Convergence, The Transition, and The Divergence

This paper reconstructs Chinese GDP from the Han Dynasty through the Yuan Dynasty, revealing three distinct periods in China's economic trajectory. The analysis shows how institutional quality—particularly merit-based versus hereditary elite selection—shaped long-run growth patterns and contributed to the Great Divergence.

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